Intel beat its guidance, then guided gross margin from 44.1% to 38.0%
Intel's release of October 29, 2026 shows Q3 revenue +21% and EPS $0.52, then guides Q4 to a 38.0% margin and EPS $0.25. A worked reading of both halves.
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Today's Signal
One stock fell 12.64%, the index fell 0.38%: the arithmetic
Alphabet fell 12.64% and Amazon 4.25% on October 29, 2026; the S&P 500 fell 0.38%. The recovery, concentration and volatility arithmetic for a household.
Loss-recovery arithmetic
The index's one-day loss needs 0.38% back. Alphabet's one-day loss needs 14.47%, and its drawdown from the high needs 41.8%.
| S&P 500, one day (−0.38%) | 0.4% |
|---|---|
| S&P 500, from high (−1.2%) | 1.2% |
| Amazon, one day (−4.25%) | 4.4% |
| Alphabet, one day (−12.64%) | 14.5% |
| Amazon, from high (−14.2%) | 16.6% |
| Alphabet, from high (−29.5%) | 41.8% |
% gain required, computed as 1 ÷ (1 − loss) − 1Source: Losses: Wealth Signal NYC Market Memory, S&P 500 (SPY proxy) Oct 29, 2026 close; Alphabet and Amazon Oct 29, 2026 close. Recovery gains: calculation.
◆ The Signal
30-second read
- What happened
- On October 29, 2026 Alphabet fell 12.64% and Amazon 4.25%, while the S&P 500 (SPY proxy) fell 0.38% and closed 1.2% below its high. Alphabet's 20-day realised volatility was 49.1% annualised; the index's was 10.1%.
- Why
- A loss and the gain needed to undo it are not symmetric: recovering from −L requires 1 ÷ (1 − L) − 1. A 0.38% loss needs 0.38% back; a 12.64% loss needs 14.47%; a 29.5% drawdown needs 41.8%. How much of that lands on a household depends on position size.
- The numbers that matter
- 14.47%Gain needed to recover from Alphabet's −12.64% on Oct 29, 2026 (calculation)41.8%Gain needed to recover from Alphabet's −29.5% drawdown from its high (calculation)0.64% vs 3.09%Typical daily move implied by 10.1% (S&P 500) and 49.1% (Alphabet) annualised 20-day realised vol4.88%One-month, one-standard-deviation S&P 500 move implied by a VIX of 16.91 on Oct 28, 2026
- Why it matters
- A $100,000 portfolio with 5% in a stock that falls 12.64% loses $993; with 50% in it, $6,510. The recovery gain needed rises from 1.0% to 7.0%.
- What happens next
- The Market Memory pages update after each close; the figures here are as of the October 29, 2026 close for the S&P 500, Alphabet and Amazon and the October 28, 2026 close for the Nasdaq and VIX.
Flagship daily
The Morning Signal
Markets in 5 minutes. No noise. · Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Overnight
- In yesterday's session, the S&P 500 fell to 7,541 (−0.51%); the Nasdaq Composite fell to 25,164 (−1.07%); the Dow fell to 51,787 (−0.38%).
- The 10-year Treasury yield ended yesterday at 4.91%, down 3.0 basis points on the day.
- WTI crude settled at $103.37 a barrel; bitcoin traded near $76,934.
- The VIX closed at 21.15 yesterday, up 8.91% on the day.
The Big Story
One stock fell 12.64%, the index fell 0.38%: the arithmetic
Alphabet fell 12.64% and Amazon 4.25% on October 29, 2026; the S&P 500 fell 0.38%. The recovery, concentration and volatility arithmetic for a household.
Two Things That Matter
- Employment Situation, Fri 6 Nov — Payrolls and the unemployment rate. The broadest monthly read on whether the labour market is tightening or loosening.
- Consumer Price Index, Tue 10 Nov — The headline inflation print. Measures what a fixed basket of goods and services costs a household compared with a year ago.
Moving
- AMD — AMD rose 3.65% to $483.90
- AVGO — Broadcom rose 3.07% to $332.13
- MSFT — Microsoft rose 2.74% to $520.99
- TGT — Target fell 2.51% to $154.40
Earnings
LatestThe most recent analysis, newest first.
All coverageBig Tech spent $203bn on capex in one quarter. Cash went negative
Four companies reported $202.9bn of capex for the quarter to September 30, 2026, double a year earlier. Three show negative free cash flow.
A $3,400 FSA saves $1,008 at 22%; forfeiting $1,008 is the break-even
The 2026 health FSA limit is $3,400 and the carryover $680. The arithmetic of forfeiture, the grace period and the $7,500 dependent care limit, from the IRS.
One ChartA single visualisation worth understanding today.
More WealthWealth
ACA 2027: a single filer at 250% of poverty owes 8.66% of income
The IRS table for 2027 runs from 2.15% to 10.22% of income and stops at 400% of poverty. The out-of-pocket cap is $12,000. Enrollment opens November 1, 2026.
8.66%
Share of income a household at exactly 250% of poverty pays toward the benchmark plan, taxable year 2027 (Rev. Proc. 2026-26)
$3,455.34
Calculated 2027 benchmark contribution for a single filer at 250% of poverty ($39,900 × 8.66%)
$12,000
2027 maximum annual limitation on cost sharing, self-only; $24,000 other than self-only (CMS, January 29, 2026)
Premium tax credit
The required contribution rises from 4.30% of income at 150% of poverty to 10.22% at 300%, stays there to 400%, and the table has no row beyond that.
| 150% of poverty | 4.3 |
|---|---|
| 200% | 6.78 |
| 250% | 8.66 |
| 300% | 10.22 |
| 400% | 10.22 |
Applicable percentage of household income, taxable years beginning in 2027; 2025 cap shown as the markerSource: IRS, Rev. Proc. 2026-26, section 3.01, applicable percentage table for 2027; 2025 marker from Rev. Proc. 2024-35
Deep DiveLong-form research, worth the time.
All seriesFed holds at 3.75–4%, 10–2, with two votes for a hike
The October 28, 2026 FOMC kept the range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent; Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter point more. Next morning: GDP +3.4%, PCE inflation 3.6%.
Alphabet fell 12.64% in a day. The release shows capex above cash flow
Alphabet fell 12.64% on October 29, 2026, larger than all but 6 of 5,583 sessions since 2004. Revenue rose 25%; capex of $51,355m topped operating cash flow.
The $954bn-a-quarter table the Treasury resets on November 4
The refunding statement is scheduled for November 4, 2026. What it decides: coupon auction sizes by tenor, the “several quarters” guidance, buybacks, bills.
EconomyEvery release explained the same way: previous, expected, actual, what changed, why it matters.
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